Wells Fargo Forecasts $100B ChatGPT Ad Revenue by 2030
In a bold industry forecast, Wells Fargo analysts project OpenAI's ChatGPT could generate nearly $100 billion in annual advertising revenue by 2030, capturing about 30% of the global search advertising market. The prediction comes as the AI-powered chatbot continues its rapid adoption, now handling nearly 8% of global search queries.
Image source note: Image generated by AI
According to analyst Ken Gawrelski's report, the entire search advertising market is expected to grow at an 8% compound annual rate, reaching $340 billion by the end of the decade. ChatGPT's expansion could primarily come at Google's expense, potentially reducing the tech giant's current 90% market share to about 60%.
Currently monetizing primarily through premium subscriptions, ChatGPT boasts over 500 million weekly active users, though only 5% pay for services. OpenAI anticipates integrating sponsored ads within the next year, with internal projections showing free user monetization reaching $1 billion by 2026 - likely driven largely by advertising.
The report draws parallels between ChatGPT's commercialization path and TikTok's advertising growth trajectory. While ChatGPT's search volume share may reach 17% by 2025, analysts note advertising revenue growth typically lags behind usage metrics before eventually catching up.
Market implications could be significant. A mere 1% decline in Google's ad prices might translate to a corresponding drop in 2026 earnings per share. The analysis also suggests new distribution partnerships and ongoing antitrust cases against Google could accelerate ChatGPT's advertising market entry.
Will traditional search engines adapt quickly enough to maintain their dominance? As AI reshapes how users find information, the battle for digital advertising dollars appears poised for its biggest shakeup in decades.
Key Points
- ChatGPT projected to generate $100B in annual ad revenue by 2030
- Could capture 30% of global search ad market from current leaders
- Currently handles 8% of search queries with 500M weekly users
- Google's market share may drop from 90% to about 60%
- Advertising integration expected within next 12 months
