According to the latest data from the US Census Bureau, the number of computer programming jobs in the United States has plummeted to its lowest level since 1980. This decline comes despite the widespread adoption of the internet, which was not prevalent in 1980, and is largely attributed to the rapid advancement of artificial intelligence (AI).

Image Source: AI-generated image, licensed through Midjourney

In 1980, the US had over 300,000 computer programming positions, a number that surged to more than 700,000 during the internet boom of the early 2000s. However, today, programming job opportunities have shrunk to roughly half that number. This stark decline contrasts with overall US employment, which has increased by nearly 75% over the past 45 years.

It is important to distinguish between computer programmers and software developers. Programmers primarily focus on coding, while software developers design and implement more complex solutions. Over the next decade (2023-2033), software development roles are projected to grow by 17%, but computer programming jobs are expected to decline by approximately 10%. Since 2023, the 12-month average employment in the computer programming industry has fallen by 27.5%.

This trend is closely linked to tools like OpenAI's ChatGPT, launched in late 2022, which can efficiently handle coding tasks and reduce the need for extensive coding knowledge. Some experts point to a significant correlation between the rising unemployment rate in the programming sector and AI's rapid development.

Mark Muro, a fellow at the Brookings Institution, states that the employment situation in the programming industry reflects AI's early impact on the labor market. Some companies are already incorporating AI into hiring and firing decisions. For example, buy-now-pay-later company Klarna announced a hiring freeze after collaborating with OpenAI to develop a chatbot that could replace 700 full-time employees, though these roles were primarily in customer service rather than programming.

The future of programming jobs remains uncertain. Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg suggests that AI can handle mid-level engineering tasks, potentially reducing demand for human programmers. However, IBM CEO Arvind Krishna believes that even with AI automating some coding tasks, human programmers remain essential for complex work. He predicts that AI will only replace 20% to 30% of code-writing jobs.

Programmers will likely shift toward more complex tasks while leveraging AI to handle simpler, time-consuming work. This collaboration could boost overall productivity and redefine roles within the tech industry.

Key Points

1. US programmer employment has dropped to its lowest level since 1980 due to AI advancements.
2. Computer programming jobs are projected to decline by 10% over the next decade.
3. Software development roles are expected to grow by 17% during the same period.
4. Tools like ChatGPT are reducing demand for traditional coding skills but may enhance productivity for complex tasks.
5. Experts debate whether AI will replace or augment human programmers in the long term.