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Microsoft's AI Bet Pays Off: Anthropic Earns $3.2B in a Quarter, OpenAI Struggles

Microsoft's fiscal year 2026 fourth-quarter results have laid bare the stark contrast between its two major AI investments. The tech giant's bet on Anthropic paid off handsomely, generating $3.2 billion in revenue during the quarter, while its stake in OpenAI resulted in a $600 million impairment. The numbers are eye-opening: Anthropic's quarterly revenue alone nearly matches OpenAI's annual revenue.

A Tale of Two Investments

Microsoft invested $5 billion in Anthropic in November 2025, with the AI startup also committing to purchase $30 billion in Azure cloud services. The decision to proactively disclose the gains from this investment suggests that Microsoft sees significant book value growth. In contrast, Microsoft holds about 27% of OpenAI, and this quarter's impairment reduced diluted earnings per share by approximately 7 cents.

But it's not all bad news for OpenAI. Over the full fiscal year 2026, the investment still yielded a positive return of $5 billion, boosting earnings per share by 67 cents. Microsoft's overall performance remained strong, with fourth-quarter revenue of $90 billion and net income of $35.8 billion. For the entire fiscal year, revenue reached $331.8 billion, with net income of $133.7 billion.

The Bigger Picture

The $600 million impairment is a drop in the bucket for a company of Microsoft's size. But the contrasting financial trends between Anthropic and OpenAI point to a more significant shift: Microsoft's carefully crafted dual AI investment strategy appears to be tilting toward the newcomer. As the AI landscape evolves, Microsoft's bets are showing divergent returns, and the market is taking notice.

Key Points

  • Microsoft's investment in Anthropic generated $3.2 billion in quarterly revenue.
  • OpenAI investment resulted in a $600 million impairment for the quarter.
  • Over the full fiscal year, OpenAI still contributed $5 billion in positive returns.
  • Microsoft's total revenue for fiscal year 2026 was $331.8 billion, with net income of $133.7 billion.
  • The contrasting performance highlights a potential shift in Microsoft's AI strategy toward Anthropic.