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AI Won't Kill Jobs? Nobel Winner Says Soft Skills Matter More Than Ever

AI's Productivity Promise—With a Catch

At the 2026 Inclusion·Bund Financial Conference in Shanghai, French economist and Nobel laureate Philippe Aghion delivered a speech titled "Creative Destruction and the AI Revolution." His message? AI could add a whopping 1.08 percentage points to annual productivity growth over the next decade—but only if we get the policies right.

Aghion's research shows that just automating tasks could add 0.68 points annually, rivaling the IT revolution. Throw in AI's ability to spark new ideas, and you get another 0.4 points. "That's just the minimum," he noted.

But here's the rub: technological breakthroughs don't automatically translate into economic growth. Aghion pointed to the U.S. IT boom of the late 1990s. Sure, productivity soared and superstar companies emerged—but industry concentration also spiked, new business entries fell, and by the mid-2000s, productivity growth had slowed.

"This is the core contradiction of creative destruction," he explained. "Innovation needs rewards for winners, but winners then use their power to block newcomers." Sound familiar? Today's AI landscape is already top-heavy: cloud computing is dominated by Amazon, Google, and Microsoft, and the GPU market is similarly concentrated. "AI has huge potential," Aghion warned, "but realizing it depends on how we handle competition."

China's Frontier Innovation: A Bright Spot

When it comes to moving from imitation to frontier innovation, Aghion had kind words for China. "China is doing very well in frontier innovation," he said, citing high-tech patent shares. Europe, meanwhile, isn't just lagging behind the U.S.—it's also falling behind China.

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The Human Side: Jobs, Skills, and Education

So what happens to ordinary workers? Aghion acknowledges AI will replace some tasks and jobs. But it also boosts productivity, making companies more competitive and potentially increasing demand—and hiring. Plus, new ideas create entirely new products and roles.

"AI will certainly replace some human labor," he said. "But it will also create new jobs by increasing productivity and inspiring innovation."

The key, he argues, is a strong education system—and China has the conditions for it. But education shouldn't just be about facts. It's about learning how to learn, so people can adapt to constant change. "We have never needed more to enhance the value of manual skills and soft skills," he stressed.

Aghion even suggested keeping some learning AI-free. Let students read, calculate, and think independently. Regulate student-facing AI carefully and make its risks known. "If AI is left unchecked, we may see an entire generation unable to calculate independently or focus on reading," he warned. "That would be very harmful."

On the labor market, he pointed to Denmark's "flexible security" model—unemployment benefits, retraining, and reemployment support to help workers transition smoothly.

The Bottom Line

Unlocking AI's growth potential requires smart competition policy. Unlocking its job-creation potential requires good education and labor protections. As Aghion's speech makes clear, the AI economy isn't just about what technology can do—it's about whether new innovations keep coming and whether more businesses and workers can participate and benefit.

Key Points:

  • AI could boost annual productivity growth by 1.08 percentage points over the next decade.
  • Tech breakthroughs alone don't guarantee growth—competition policy matters.
  • AI will replace some jobs but also create new ones.
  • Soft skills and manual skills become more valuable, not less.
  • Education should teach adaptability and include AI-free learning.
  • Denmark's "flexible security" offers a labor market model.